Vancouver Housing Bubble Index2018
Over the past five years, owner-occupied homes have been a good investment: the median total return of the most important financial centers was 10% annually, accounting for an imputed rental income and book profits from rising prices. So “golden concrete” has seemingly outperformed the stock markets.
On the other hand, the term “affordability crisis” dominates headlines. Fewer and fewer resident households can afford to buy their own home. The crowding out of long-time residents from their local housing markets by foreign investors is triggering political reactions.
Accordingly, foreign and buy-to-let investors are the main group being targeted by new regulatory measures. It is becoming more difficult, more expensive and in some cases outright impossible for them to acquire residential space. Especially in the luxury market, regulatory intervention can bring demand to a standstill and trigger a price correction.
Increasingly strained affordability
The median price-to-income (PI) multiple of the cities in the study increased from 5.5 in 2008 to 7.5 today. Buying a 60m2 apartment in most world cities exceeds the budget of most people who earn the average annual income paid in the highly skilled service sector.
Consequently, discrepancies in housing market valuations widened despite roughly stable aggregate imbalances over the last year. Bubble risk soared in Munich, Amsterdam, and Hong Kong. In Vancouver, San Francisco and Frankfurt, too, imbalances continued to grow. More broadly, index scores fell in no less than one-third of the cities. Stockholm and Sydney experienced the steepest drop. Valuations went down slightly in London, New York, and Toronto, among others.
在过去五年中，自住房屋是一项不错的投资：最重要的金融中心的总回报中位数为每年10％，这是由于估算的租金收入以及价格上涨导致的账面利润。所以“黄金混凝土”似乎表现优于股市。 另一方面，“负担能力危机”一词占据了头条新闻。居民家庭购买自己房屋的可能性越来越小。外国投资者从当地房地产市场挤出长期居民，引发了政治反应。 因此，外国投资者和买房投资者是新监管措施的主要目标群体。它变得越来越困难，越来越昂贵，在某些情况下，他们无法获得住宅空间。特别是在奢侈品市场，监管干预可能会使需求停滞不前并引发价格调整。